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Paper Details

THE PEAK AND DECLINE OF NIGERIAN OIL: HOW SOON?

Okengwu, K. O1* Okengwu, U. A.2

Journal Title:Global Journal of Engineering Science and Research Management (GJESRM)
Abstract


Recent increase in the economic importance of Crude Oil in Nigeria had resulted in the research and understanding of the availability and recoverability of the resources. The peak of Nigeria oil production, followed by an irreversible decline, will be a watershed in Nigeria history. Production data from 1958-2003 were used for the estimation of peak, based on the Energy Information Agency (EIA) methodology of growth rate of 2, 3, and 4 % per year and a decline of Reserve to Production (R/P) ratio of 10. Combining these methodology SCENARIOS with the oil production numerical data, we have arrived at (2033-2065) a span of 32 years as a probable time of peak for Nigerian oil. We do recognize, however, given all possible variables, it is likely that this date (2033-2065) may be wrong. The question is how far wrong? We believe, it is reasonably close and further studies will help narrow whatever error exists. Importantly, the peak of oil production may occur within the lifetime of most people living today.

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