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Paper Details

Analyses of IPCCs Warming Calculation Results

Antero Ollila

Journal Title:Journal of Chemical, Biological and physical sciences
Abstract


Some researchers have noticed that the warming calculations of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are not always based on the atmospheres, which use the global average values. CO2 effect of 26% in greenhouse phenomenon is based on the modified U.S. Standard Atmosphere 1976 (USST 76 atmosphere) containing only 50% of water in comparison to the true value. The calculations prove that the warming of 0.76 C can be achieved if the USST 76 atmospheric model is applied and constant relative humidity (RH) assumed. The analysis also reveals that IPCCs scenario presentation contains choices, which make the warming results looking higher than they should be. All the climate sensitivity values above 1.7 C conflict with the explanation given by IPCC for the 1750 - 2005 periods. The global warming potential (GWP) values of CH4 and N2O are applicable only for small concentration changes and in higher concentrations these greenhouse (GH) gases are even weaker than CO2. The ultimate worst case scenario is the release of methane from the methane clathrates on the ocean floor. The calculations show that the release would cause 2.1 C temperature increase, which is only 68% of the CO2 warming effect. The spectral analysis show that in the prevailing atmospheric conditions the warming potency of methane is about 14% from the potency of CO2, and the same of N2O is about 17%. The effect of water in the same conditions is 15.2 times greater than that of CO2.

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